Answer one question, get asked another.
Was it just turnout? Did Democrats show up at the polls, while Republicans stayed home? Definitely not.
| Turnout in 2011 Dryden election, by party grouping | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Description | Dem + Green + WF | Rep + Con | Blank, Ind, Other | Total |
| 1 | West Dryden | 35.4% | 37.4% | 29.6% | 34.1% |
| 2 | Freeville area | 50.5% | 53.6% | 33.1% | 46.9% |
| 3 | McLean | 38.9% | 38.6% | 20.8% | 33.0% |
| 4 | Varna | 48.7% | 42.4% | 23.4% | 40.6% |
| 5 | Etna | 46.5% | 46.5% | 27.3% | 40.3% |
| 6 | Village of Dryden | 53.9% | 60.7% | 39.3% | 53.1% |
| 7 | E and N of Dryden | 51.8% | 55.0% | 30.6% | 47.3% |
| 8 | Snyder Hill, Rt 79 | 55.8% | 45.8% | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| 9 | Ellis Hollow Creek | 62.3% | 51.7% | 40.9% | 55.7% |
| 10 | South Central | 59.5% | 58.9% | 40.7% | 53.9% |
| 11 | Dryden Lake | 59.3% | 60.3% | 42.1% | 55.1% |
| Total | 52.5% | 51.7% | 34.6% | 47.3% | |
The further south or east you went, the more people turned out, and people enrolled in a specific party came out more frequently than those registered Blank, Independence, or other. Overall, though, if you'd given me these turnout numbers for a local election without giving me the rest of the story, I'd have forecast a Republican win. Not a sweeping win, but certainly not getting swept!
(I generally expect voters registered Blank, Independence, Other, or Libertarian to tilt significantly Republican in local elections outside of the southwest corner.)
Posted by simon at May 1, 2012 2:11 PM in politics (local)